Combat Edge Intelligence

Peter Petties vs Stephen Costello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-8-0Record6-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Crazy 88 Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Peter PettiesNow 1537
If they win+16→ 1553
If they lose-16→ 1521
Stephen CostelloNow 1536
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.61
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
29%
Strike accuracy
TBD
8.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
48%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Peter PettiesStephen Costello
15001550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (33%)
7 (70%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Costello60%
Peter Petties 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Costello a 60% favorite over Peter Petties in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Peter Petties's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1536), separated by just 1 points.

Peter Petties finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Costello 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.