Phil Caracappa vs Roman Paulus
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record11-6-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
135 lbsWeight139 lbs
Dante Rivera BJJ· 1664 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamSpartakus Fight Gym· 1654 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Phil CaracappaRoman Paulus
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roman Paulus63%
Phil Caracappa 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Roman Paulus a 63% favorite over Phil Caracappa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phil Caracappa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1596), separated by just 0 points.
Roman Paulus enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Phil Caracappa finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Roman Paulus 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.