Combat Edge Intelligence

Phil Caracappa vs Saimon Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record18-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach72"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Dante Rivera BJJTeamAstra Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Phil CaracappaNow 1596
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580
Saimon OliveiraNow 1595
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.93
Sig. strikes / min
2.67
50%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.13
29%
Strike defense
47%
1
Takedown avg.
1.07
8%
Takedown accuracy
25%
100%
Takedown defense
39%
1
Submission avg.
1.43

Trajectory

Phil CaracappaSaimon Oliveira
1600202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
0 (0%)
Submission
11 (61%)
9 (82%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Phil Caracappa57%
Saimon Oliveira 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Phil Caracappa a 57% favorite over Saimon Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1595), separated by just 1 points.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Phil Caracappa finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Saimon Oliveira 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.