Combat Edge Intelligence

Phil De Fries vs Stipe Miocic

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-6-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach 80"
264 lbsWeight234 lbs
Alliance MMATeamStrong Style Fight Team

What's at stake

Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Phil De Fries carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Phil De FriesNow 1707
If they win+19→ 1726
If they lose-13→ 1694
Stipe MiocicNow 1765
If they win+13→ 1778
If they lose-19→ 1746

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.30
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
47%
Strike accuracy
53%
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.01
38%
Strike defense
52%
3.29
Takedown avg.
1.74
43%
Takedown accuracy
34%
100%
Takedown defense
65%
0.55
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Phil De FriesStipe Miocic
16501700175020242025

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
15 (75%)
14 (56%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (20%)
Decision
5 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Phil De Fries54%
Stipe Miocic 46%Elo baseline: 42%

The Combat Edge model makes Phil De Fries a 54% favorite over Stipe Miocic in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stipe Miocic's way (42%).

Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1707, a 58-point edge.

Phil De Fries enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Phil De Fries finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.