Phillipe Nover vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-8-1Record34-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72,0"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Renzo GracieTeamPitbull Brothers· 1624 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Phillipe Nover is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1661
If they lose-18→ 1629
If they win+18→ 1616
If they lose-14→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Phillipe NoverRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renan Barão54%
Phillipe Nover 46%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Barão a 54% favorite over Phillipe Nover in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phillipe Nover's way (43%).
Phillipe Nover holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1647 to 1598, a 49-point edge.
Phillipe Nover enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Phillipe Nover finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Phillipe Nover carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.