Rafael Carino vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-1-1Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
245 lbsWeight246 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1523
If they lose-25→ 1475
If they win+12→ 1502
If they lose-12→ 1478
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael CarinoRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai56%
Rafael Carino 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 56% favorite over Rafael Carino in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Carino's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1490), separated by just 10 points.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.