Rafael Cavalcante vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-0Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
41,0"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Rafael Cavalcante carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1657
If they lose-8→ 1625
If they win+6→ 1829
If they lose-18→ 1805
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael CavalcanteRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Bader83%
Rafael Cavalcante 17%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 83% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1633, a 190-point edge.
Rafael Cavalcante finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Rafael Cavalcante and Ryan Bader share 1 common opponent: Muhammed Lawal.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.