Rafael Cavalcante vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-0Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
41,0"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Rafael Cavalcante carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1655
If they lose-8→ 1623
If they win+6→ 1832
If they lose-18→ 1808
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael CavalcanteRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Bader79%
Rafael Cavalcante 21%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 79% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1826 to 1631, a 195-point edge.
Rafael Cavalcante finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Rafael Cavalcante and Ryan Bader share 1 common opponent: Muhammed Lawal.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.