Rafael Cavalcante vs Sullivan Cauley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-0Record8-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
41,0"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamDan's Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael CavalcanteSullivan Cauley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sullivan Cauley66%
Rafael Cavalcante 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sullivan Cauley a 66% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1633), separated by just 2 points.
Sullivan Cauley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Cavalcante finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sullivan Cauley 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.