Rafael Dias vs Shane Howell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-1Record13-10-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
SD Training SystemTeamR-1 MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1549
If they lose-12→ 1525
If they win+16→ 1554
If they lose-16→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael DiasShane Howell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Dias52%
Shane Howell 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Dias a 52% favorite over Shane Howell in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Howell's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1538), separated by just 1 points.
Shane Howell enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael Dias finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Shane Howell 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.