Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael do Nascimento vs Ricky Palacios

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record11-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
X-GymTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael do NascimentoNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Ricky PalaciosNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
7.73
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
TBD
Strike defense
60%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rafael do NascimentoRicky Palacios
160016501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
9 (69%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (23%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael do Nascimento70%
Ricky Palacios 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael do Nascimento a 70% favorite over Ricky Palacios in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Rafael do Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Palacios 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.