Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael do Nascimento vs Vinicius Pires

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record12-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'9"
70"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
X-GymTeamBlack Sheep

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael do NascimentoNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Vinicius PiresNow 1658
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Rafael do NascimentoVinicius Pires
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
9 (69%)
Submission
5 (42%)
3 (23%)
Decision
6 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Vinicius Pires55%
Rafael do Nascimento 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Vinicius Pires a 55% favorite over Rafael do Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1658), separated by just 1 points.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Rafael do Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Vinicius Pires 50%.

Rafael do Nascimento carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.