Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael dos Anjos vs Tarec Saffiedine

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-17-0Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach70,0"
155 lbsWeight169 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tarec Saffiedine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+10→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1699
Tarec SaffiedineNow 1659
If they win+18→ 1677
If they lose-14→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.48
Sig. strikes / min
4.05
47%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
60%
Strike defense
62%
1.95
Takedown avg.
0.52
36%
Takedown accuracy
36%
55%
Takedown defense
85%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Rafael dos AnjosTarec Saffiedine
1650170017502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (16%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
11 (34%)
Submission
5 (31%)
16 (50%)
Decision
10 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael dos Anjos51%
Tarec Saffiedine 49%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 51% favorite over Tarec Saffiedine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1659, a 54-point edge.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tarec Saffiedine 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.