Rafael dos Anjos vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-18-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1685
If they win+13→ 1671
If they lose-11→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael dos AnjosTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos73%
Tony Ferguson 27%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 73% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1658, a 40-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Rafael dos Anjos and Tony Ferguson share 1 common opponent: Michael Chiesa.
Tony Ferguson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.