Rafael dos Anjos vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-17-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1699
If they win+14→ 1673
If they lose-10→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael dos AnjosTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos62%
Tony Ferguson 38%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 62% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1659, a 54-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Rafael dos Anjos and Tony Ferguson share 1 common opponent: Michael Chiesa.
Tony Ferguson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.