Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael dos Anjos vs Tyson Griffin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-17-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tyson Griffin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+8→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1697
Tyson GriffinNow 1584
If they win+22→ 1606
If they lose-10→ 1574

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.48
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
47%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
60%
Strike defense
65%
1.95
Takedown avg.
1.87
36%
Takedown accuracy
47%
55%
Takedown defense
60%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.89

Trajectory

Rafael dos AnjosTyson Griffin
1600165017001750201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (16%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
11 (34%)
Submission
3 (18%)
16 (50%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael dos Anjos70%
Tyson Griffin 30%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 70% favorite over Tyson Griffin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1584, a 129-point edge.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tyson Griffin 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.