Rafael dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-17-0Record24-13-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach75″
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1712 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael dos AnjosVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque84%
Rafael dos Anjos 16%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 84% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael dos Anjos's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1714 vs 1707), separated by just 7 points.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Rafael dos Anjos and Vicente Luque share 2 common opponents: Geoff Neal and Michael Chiesa.
Vicente Luque carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.