Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Natal vs Rich Attonito

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Rich Attonito
us

Rich Attonito

“The Raging Bull”

10-5-0WelterweightUFC

1593Solid

Tale of the tape

21-9-1Record10-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
76,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rich Attonito carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+9→ 1682
If they lose-15→ 1658
Rich AttonitoNow 1593
If they win+20→ 1613
If they lose-12→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
2.28
48%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
58%
Strike defense
59%
2.55
Takedown avg.
0.74
34%
Takedown accuracy
38%
77%
Takedown defense
75%
0.50
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rafael NatalRich Attonito
155016001650170020102011201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

4 (19%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
8 (38%)
Submission
2 (20%)
9 (43%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Natal67%
Rich Attonito 33%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 67% favorite over Rich Attonito in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1593, a 80-point edge.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rich Attonito 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.