Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Natal vs Robert Whittaker

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-9-1Record27-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76,0"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamPMA Super Martial Arts

What's at stake

Robert Whittaker is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rafael Natal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+15→ 1688
If they lose-9→ 1664
Robert WhittakerNow 1752
If they win+9→ 1761
If they lose-15→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1752 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
4.39
48%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.36
58%
Strike defense
60%
2.55
Takedown avg.
0.73
34%
Takedown accuracy
10%
77%
Takedown defense
82%
0.50
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rafael NatalRobert Whittaker
17001750201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (19%)
KO/TKO
11 (41%)
8 (38%)
Submission
5 (19%)
9 (43%)
Decision
11 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Robert Whittaker92%
Rafael Natal 8%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Robert Whittaker a 92% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Robert Whittaker holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1673, a 79-point edge.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Robert Whittaker 59%.

Rafael Natal carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.