Rafael Natal vs Sean Spencer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record12-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
76,0"Reach75,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Sean Spencer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1682
If they lose-15→ 1658
If they win+20→ 1601
If they lose-12→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael NatalSean Spencer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Natal60%
Sean Spencer 40%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 60% favorite over Sean Spencer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1581, a 92-point edge.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sean Spencer enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Sean Spencer 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.