Rafael Natal vs Tim Boetsch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record21-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76,0"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tim Boetsch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-11→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael NatalTim Boetsch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Natal69%
Tim Boetsch 31%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 69% favorite over Tim Boetsch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1631, a 42-point edge.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tim Boetsch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tim Boetsch 76%.
Rafael Natal and Tim Boetsch share 1 common opponent: Ed Herman.
Rafael Natal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.