Rafael Natal vs Tim Kennedy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record18-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
76,0"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Tim Kennedy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Rafael Natal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1687
If they lose-10→ 1663
If they win+13→ 1743
If they lose-19→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael NatalTim Kennedy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Kennedy61%
Rafael Natal 39%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Kennedy a 61% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Tim Kennedy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1673, a 57-point edge.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tim Kennedy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tim Kennedy 78%.
Rafael Natal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.