Rafael Natal vs Tom Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record17-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
76,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tom Watson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
If they win+13→ 1648
If they lose-11→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael NatalTom Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Natal60%
Tom Watson 40%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 60% favorite over Tom Watson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1635, a 38-point edge.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tom Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tom Watson 53%.
Rafael Natal and Tom Watson share 1 common opponent: Chris Camozzi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.