Rafael Natal vs Tor Troeng
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record16-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
76,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight184 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamRenyi
What's at stake
Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tor Troeng carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1683
If they lose-14→ 1659
If they win+19→ 1632
If they lose-13→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael NatalTor Troeng
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Natal67%
Tor Troeng 33%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 67% favorite over Tor Troeng in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1613, a 60-point edge.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tor Troeng enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tor Troeng 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.