Rafael Tobias vs Styve Ngono
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record8-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
74"Reach90"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
If they win+24→ 1675
If they lose-24→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael TobiasStyve Ngono
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Styve Ngono52%
Rafael Tobias 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Styve Ngono a 52% favorite over Rafael Tobias in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Tobias's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1651), separated by just 5 points.
Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Styve Ngono enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Rafael Tobias finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Styve Ngono 50%.
Styve Ngono carries a 16-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.