Rafael Xavier vs Wagner Prado
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-9-0Record18-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
78"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Sayyato Performance GymTeamBrazilian TKO· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1618
If they lose-16→ 1586
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael XavierWagner Prado
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wagner Prado56%
Rafael Xavier 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Wagner Prado a 56% favorite over Rafael Xavier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Xavier's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1602 vs 1601), separated by just 1 points.
Rafael Xavier finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Prado 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.