Raffael Cerqueira vs Wildemar Santos
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Raffael Cerqueira56%
Wildemar Santos 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Raffael Cerqueira a 56% favorite over Wildemar Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1629 vs 1627), separated by just 2 points.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Raffael Cerqueira finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Wildemar Santos 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record15-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
76"Reach-
205 lbsWeight201 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Raffael CerqueiraWildemar Santos