Randy Brown vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-8-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
78"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Budokan Martial Arts AcademyTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1754
If they lose-12→ 1730
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Randy BrownRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown66%
Rory MacDonald 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 66% favorite over Rory MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1742 vs 1741), separated by just 1 points.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Randy Brown finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Randy Brown carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.