Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Lauzon MMATeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated
What's at stake
Tony Kelley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Randy Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1579
If they lose-14→ 1547
If they win+22→ 1616
If they lose-26→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Randy CostaTony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Kelley53%
Randy Costa 47%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Kelley a 53% favorite over Randy Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Tony Kelley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1594 to 1561, a 33-point edge.
Randy Costa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Randy Costa and Tony Kelley share 1 common opponent: Adrian Yanez.
Randy Costa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.