Combat Edge Intelligence

Raoni Barcelos vs Said Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-0Record18-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Laerte Barcelos TeamTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

Raoni Barcelos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Said Nurmagomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raoni BarcelosNow 1780
If they win+13→ 1793
If they lose-19→ 1761
Said NurmagomedovNow 1724
If they win+19→ 1743
If they lose-13→ 1711

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.92
Sig. strikes / min
3.08
52%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
61%
Strike defense
56%
2.22
Takedown avg.
0.86
31%
Takedown accuracy
15%
88%
Takedown defense
63%
0.58
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Raoni BarcelosSaid Nurmagomedov
1700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (36%)
KO/TKO
4 (22%)
3 (14%)
Submission
6 (33%)
11 (50%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Raoni Barcelos72%
Said Nurmagomedov 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Raoni Barcelos a 72% favorite over Said Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Raoni Barcelos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1780 to 1724, a 56-point edge.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Raoni Barcelos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Said Nurmagomedov 56%.

Said Nurmagomedov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.