Combat Edge Intelligence

Raoni Barcelos vs Timur Valiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-0Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'6"
67"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Laerte Barcelos TeamTeamDagFighter

What's at stake

Raoni Barcelos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Timur Valiev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raoni BarcelosNow 1780
If they win+13→ 1793
If they lose-19→ 1761
Timur ValievNow 1707
If they win+19→ 1726
If they lose-13→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.92
Sig. strikes / min
5.19
52%
Strike accuracy
53%
4.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
61%
Strike defense
45%
2.22
Takedown avg.
1.73
31%
Takedown accuracy
40%
88%
Takedown defense
56%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Raoni BarcelosTimur Valiev
1700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (36%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
3 (14%)
Submission
2 (11%)
11 (50%)
Decision
12 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Raoni Barcelos76%
Timur Valiev 24%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Raoni Barcelos a 76% favorite over Timur Valiev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Raoni Barcelos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1780 to 1707, a 73-point edge.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Raoni Barcelos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Timur Valiev 37%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.