Combat Edge Intelligence

Raoni Barcelos vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-0Record20-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Laerte Barcelos TeamTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Raoni Barcelos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raoni BarcelosNow 1780
If they win+18→ 1798
If they lose-14→ 1766
Umar NurmagomedovNow 1822
If they win+14→ 1836
If they lose-18→ 1804

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.92
Sig. strikes / min
3.86
52%
Strike accuracy
56%
4.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.86
61%
Strike defense
61%
2.22
Takedown avg.
4.03
31%
Takedown accuracy
8%
88%
Takedown defense
79%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Raoni BarcelosUmar Nurmagomedov
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (36%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
3 (14%)
Submission
7 (35%)
11 (50%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Umar Nurmagomedov60%
Raoni Barcelos 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 60% favorite over Raoni Barcelos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1780, a 42-point edge.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Raoni Barcelos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.

Umar Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.