Raoni Barcelos vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-6-0Record20-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Laerte Barcelos TeamTeamEagles MMA· 1815 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Raoni Barcelos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1772
If they lose-11→ 1748
If they win+14→ 1816
If they lose-18→ 1784
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1712 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Raoni BarcelosUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Umar Nurmagomedov70%
Raoni Barcelos 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 70% favorite over Raoni Barcelos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1759, a 43-point edge.
Raoni Barcelos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Umar Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.