Raphael Assunção vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-10-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'6"
66"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
TJ Dillashaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Raphael Assunção carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1721
If they lose-10→ 1697
If they win+13→ 1776
If they lose-19→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Raphael AssunçãoTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Dillashaw78%
Raphael Assunção 22%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Dillashaw a 78% favorite over Raphael Assunção in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
TJ Dillashaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1707, a 56-point edge.
Raphael Assunção finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
Raphael Assunção and TJ Dillashaw share 3 common opponents: Cody Garbrandt, Cory Sandhagen and Aljamain Sterling.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.