Combat Edge Intelligence

Raphael Assunção vs Vaughan Lee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-10-0Record14-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamUTC Birmingham

What's at stake

Raphael Assunção is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Vaughan Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raphael AssunçãoNow 1707
If they win+6→ 1713
If they lose-18→ 1689
Vaughan LeeNow 1507
If they win+18→ 1525
If they lose-6→ 1501

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.22
Sig. strikes / min
3.47
43%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
67%
Strike defense
70%
1.65
Takedown avg.
0.81
39%
Takedown accuracy
33%
78%
Takedown defense
72%
0.25
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Raphael AssunçãoVaughan Lee
15001600170020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

4 (14%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
10 (36%)
Submission
7 (50%)
14 (50%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Raphael Assunção81%
Vaughan Lee 19%Elo baseline: 76%

The Combat Edge model makes Raphael Assunção a 81% favorite over Vaughan Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).

Raphael Assunção holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1507, a 200-point edge.

Vaughan Lee enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Raphael Assunção finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Vaughan Lee 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.