Combat Edge Intelligence

Raphael Assunção vs Timur Valiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-10-0Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'5"Height5'6"
66"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamDagFighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Raphael AssunçãoNow 1707
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695
Timur ValievNow 1707
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.22
Sig. strikes / min
5.19
43%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
67%
Strike defense
45%
1.65
Takedown avg.
1.73
39%
Takedown accuracy
40%
78%
Takedown defense
56%
0.25
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Raphael AssunçãoTimur Valiev
17002021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (14%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
10 (36%)
Submission
2 (11%)
14 (50%)
Decision
12 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Timur Valiev60%
Raphael Assunção 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Timur Valiev a 60% favorite over Raphael Assunção in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raphael Assunção's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1707 vs 1707), separated by just 0 points.

Raphael Assunção finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Timur Valiev 37%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.