Raphael Mebenga vs TJ O'Brien
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-3-0Record20-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'2"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamDes Moines Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1473
If they lose-24→ 1425
If they win+24→ 1479
If they lose-24→ 1431
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Raphael MebengaTJ O'Brien
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ O'Brien58%
Raphael Mebenga 42%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ O'Brien a 58% favorite over Raphael Mebenga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1449 vs 1455), separated by just 6 points.
Raphael Mebenga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ O'Brien enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ O'Brien 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.