Combat Edge Intelligence

Rashad Evans vs Ryan Bader

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Ryan Bader
us

Ryan Bader

“Darth”

31-8-0HeavyweightPFL

1823Great

Tale of the tape

20-8-1Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'2"
75"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamPower MMA Team

What's at stake

Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Rashad Evans carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rashad EvansNow 1674
If they win+17→ 1691
If they lose-7→ 1667
Ryan BaderNow 1823
If they win+7→ 1830
If they lose-17→ 1806

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.82
38%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.39
63%
Strike defense
72%
2.98
Takedown avg.
3.37
45%
Takedown accuracy
44%
74%
Takedown defense
81%
0
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Rashad EvansRyan Bader
1700175018001850202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
13 (42%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (10%)
11 (55%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan Bader83%
Rashad Evans 17%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 83% favorite over Rashad Evans in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1674, a 149-point edge.

Rashad Evans finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.