Rashad Evans vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-8-1Record34-18-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'2"
75"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Rashad Evans is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sam Alvey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661
If they win+13→ 1653
If they lose-11→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rashad EvansSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rashad Evans60%
Sam Alvey 40%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Rashad Evans a 60% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Rashad Evans holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1640, a 34-point edge.
Rashad Evans finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Rashad Evans and Sam Alvey share 1 common opponent: Antônio Rogério Nogueira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.