Combat Edge Intelligence

Rashad Evans vs Sam Hoger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Sam Hoger
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Sam Hoger

“Alaskan Assassin”

10-4-0Light HeavyweightHoger MMA

1627Solid

Tale of the tape

20-8-1Record10-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'2"
75"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMiletich Martial Arts

What's at stake

Rashad Evans is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Sam Hoger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rashad EvansNow 1674
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1660
Sam HogerNow 1627
If they win+18→ 1645
If they lose-14→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
1.07
38%
Strike accuracy
25%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.25
63%
Strike defense
57%
2.98
Takedown avg.
1.12
45%
Takedown accuracy
38%
74%
Takedown defense
29%
0
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Rashad EvansSam Hoger
1600165020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
1 (5%)
Submission
6 (60%)
11 (55%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Rashad Evans and Sam Hoger within a point of even.

Rashad Evans holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1627, a 47-point edge.

Sam Hoger enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Rashad Evans finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Sam Hoger 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.