Combat Edge Intelligence

Rashad Evans vs Sean Salmon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-8-1Record18-21-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTBD

What's at stake

Rashad Evans is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Sean Salmon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rashad EvansNow 1674
If they win+5→ 1679
If they lose-19→ 1655
Sean SalmonNow 1458
If they win+19→ 1477
If they lose-5→ 1453

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
1.58
38%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.15
63%
Strike defense
65%
2.98
Takedown avg.
4.30
45%
Takedown accuracy
50%
74%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rashad EvansSean Salmon
15001600201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
7 (39%)
1 (5%)
Submission
6 (33%)
11 (55%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Rashad Evans79%
Sean Salmon 21%Elo baseline: 78%

The Combat Edge model makes Rashad Evans a 79% favorite over Sean Salmon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).

Rashad Evans holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1458, a 216-point edge.

Sean Salmon enters on a 10-fight loss streak.

Rashad Evans finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Sean Salmon 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.