Rashad Evans vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-8-1Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
75"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Rashad Evans is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Stephan Bonnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1660
If they win+19→ 1632
If they lose-13→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rashad EvansStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rashad Evans68%
Stephan Bonnar 32%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Rashad Evans a 68% favorite over Stephan Bonnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Rashad Evans holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1613, a 61-point edge.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rashad Evans finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Rashad Evans and Stephan Bonnar share 1 common opponent: Jon Jones.
Stephan Bonnar carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.