Combat Edge Intelligence

Raulian Paiva vs Rogério Bontorin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-6-1Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'5"
69"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 22 ratedTeamGile Ribeiro Team

What's at stake

Rogério Bontorin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Raulian Paiva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raulian PaivaNow 1648
If they win+17→ 1665
If they lose-15→ 1633
Rogério BontorinNow 1663
If they win+15→ 1678
If they lose-17→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.63
43%
Strike accuracy
53%
5.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
49%
Strike defense
50%
0.65
Takedown avg.
2.90
24%
Takedown accuracy
60%
77%
Takedown defense
52%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

Raulian PaivaRogério Bontorin
16501700202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
3 (18%)
3 (13%)
Submission
11 (65%)
16 (70%)
Decision
3 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Rogério Bontorin53%
Raulian Paiva 47%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Rogério Bontorin a 53% favorite over Raulian Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Rogério Bontorin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1648, a 15-point edge.

Raulian Paiva finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Rogério Bontorin 82%.

Raulian Paiva carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.