Raulian Paiva vs Rogério Bontorin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-1Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'5"
69"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamGile Ribeiro Team· 1650 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Raulian Paiva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Rogério Bontorin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1663
If they lose-17→ 1631
If they win+17→ 1650
If they lose-15→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Raulian PaivaRogério Bontorin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rogério Bontorin56%
Raulian Paiva 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Rogério Bontorin a 56% favorite over Raulian Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raulian Paiva's way (48%).
Raulian Paiva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1633, a 15-point edge.
Raulian Paiva finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Rogério Bontorin 82%.
Raulian Paiva carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.