Combat Edge Intelligence

Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-6-1Record19-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'6"
69"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Sergey Morozov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Raulian Paiva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raulian PaivaNow 1648
If they win+17→ 1665
If they lose-15→ 1633
Sergey MorozovNow 1673
If they win+15→ 1688
If they lose-17→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.01
43%
Strike accuracy
43%
5.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
49%
Strike defense
61%
0.65
Takedown avg.
3.63
24%
Takedown accuracy
32%
77%
Takedown defense
68%
0.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Raulian PaivaSergey Morozov
1650202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
8 (42%)
3 (13%)
Submission
3 (16%)
16 (70%)
Decision
8 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Sergey Morozov55%
Raulian Paiva 45%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Sergey Morozov a 55% favorite over Raulian Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Sergey Morozov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1648, a 25-point edge.

Sergey Morozov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Raulian Paiva finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Sergey Morozov 58%.

Raulian Paiva carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.