Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-1Record19-9-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'4"
69"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Raulian PaivaZhalgas Zhumagulov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zhalgas Zhumagulov53%
Raulian Paiva 47%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Zhalgas Zhumagulov a 53% favorite over Raulian Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raulian Paiva's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1648 vs 1639), separated by just 9 points.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raulian Paiva finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Zhalgas Zhumagulov 53%.
Raulian Paiva carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.