Regan Upshaw vs Satoshi Honma
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record4-7-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight204 lbs
Havoc MMATeamTBD
What's at stake
Satoshi Honma is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Regan Upshaw carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1503
If they lose-23→ 1455
If they win+23→ 1516
If they lose-25→ 1468
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Regan UpshawSatoshi Honma
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Regan Upshaw70%
Satoshi Honma 30%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Regan Upshaw a 70% favorite over Satoshi Honma in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Satoshi Honma's way (48%).
Satoshi Honma holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1493 to 1478, a 15-point edge.
Satoshi Honma 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.