Combat Edge Intelligence

Renan Barão vs Scott Jorgensen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Renan Barão
br

Renan Barão

“The Baron”

34-10-0BantamweightGFL

1598Solid

Tale of the tape

34-10-0Record15-12-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
70"Reach37.00
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamTwisted Genetiks

What's at stake

Scott Jorgensen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Renan BarãoNow 1598
If they win+17→ 1615
If they lose-15→ 1583
Scott JorgensenNow 1628
If they win+15→ 1643
If they lose-17→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
37%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.90
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.41
58%
Strike defense
65%
1.49
Takedown avg.
2.61
42%
Takedown accuracy
46%
91%
Takedown defense
60%
0.54
Submission avg.
0.73

Trajectory

Renan BarãoScott Jorgensen
1600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

8 (24%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
15 (44%)
Submission
5 (33%)
11 (32%)
Decision
8 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Renan Barão and Scott Jorgensen within a point of even.

Scott Jorgensen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1598, a 30-point edge.

Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Renan Barão finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Scott Jorgensen 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.