Renan Barão vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
70"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
TJ Dillashaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1621
If they lose-9→ 1589
If they win+9→ 1772
If they lose-23→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Renan BarãoTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Dillashaw83%
Renan Barão 17%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Dillashaw a 83% favorite over Renan Barão in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
TJ Dillashaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1598, a 165-point edge.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
Renan Barão and TJ Dillashaw share 1 common opponent: Aljamain Sterling.
Renan Barão carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.