Renan Ferreira vs Shane Carwin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'8"Height6'2"
85"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight254 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1686 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Renan FerreiraShane Carwin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renan Ferreira63%
Shane Carwin 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Ferreira a 63% favorite over Shane Carwin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1672), separated by just 1 points.
Renan Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Renan Ferreira finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.