Combat Edge Intelligence

Ricardo Abreu vs Wagner Silva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record10-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Wand Fight TeamTeamTata Fight Team

What's at stake

Ricardo Abreu is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Wagner Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ricardo AbreuNow 1577
If they win+20→ 1597
If they lose-28→ 1549
Wagner SilvaNow 1522
If they win+19→ 1541
If they lose-13→ 1509

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1508 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.79
Sig. strikes / min
1.69
32%
Strike accuracy
30%
3.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.87
68%
Strike defense
66%
2.13
Takedown avg.
0
43%
Takedown accuracy
0%
100%
Takedown defense
58%
0.71
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ricardo AbreuWagner Silva
155016002014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
2 (40%)
Submission
5 (50%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Ricardo Abreu64%
Wagner Silva 36%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Ricardo Abreu a 64% favorite over Wagner Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Ricardo Abreu holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1577 to 1522, a 55-point edge.

Wagner Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ricardo Abreu finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Silva 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.