Combat Edge Intelligence

Ricardo Almeida vs TJ Grant

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamFit Plus

What's at stake

TJ Grant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ricardo Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ricardo AlmeidaNow 1603
If they win+18→ 1621
If they lose-14→ 1589
TJ GrantNow 1653
If they win+14→ 1667
If they lose-18→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.02
Sig. strikes / min
3.95
49%
Strike accuracy
54%
1.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
61%
Strike defense
57%
3.74
Takedown avg.
1.63
38%
Takedown accuracy
44%
31%
Takedown defense
37%
1.21
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Ricardo AlmeidaTJ Grant
15501600165020092010201120122013

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
5 (38%)
Submission
13 (62%)
8 (62%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

TJ Grant75%
Ricardo Almeida 25%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes TJ Grant a 75% favorite over Ricardo Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

TJ Grant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1653 to 1603, a 50-point edge.

TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Ricardo Almeida finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, TJ Grant 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.