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Combat Edge Intelligence

Ricardo Arona vs Valentin Moldavsky

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ricardo Arona
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Ricardo Arona

“The Brazilian Tiger”

14-5-0Light HeavyweightBC

1697Good

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record15-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReach75"
200 lbsWeight205 lbs
Brazilian Top Team· 1660 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFedorTeam· 1773 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ricardo AronaNow 1697
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
Valentin MoldavskyNow 1697
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
Not available
Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
Not available
Not available
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Ricardo AronaValentin Moldavsky
17002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (21%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
2 (14%)
Submission
3 (20%)
9 (64%)
Decision
10 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Valentin Moldavsky64%
Ricardo Arona 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Valentin Moldavsky a 64% favorite over Ricardo Arona in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ricardo Arona's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1697), separated by just 0 points.

Ricardo Arona finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Valentin Moldavsky 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.