Ricardo Arona vs Will Fleury
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record17-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReach77"
200 lbsWeight238 lbs
Brazilian Top Team· 1660 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ricardo AronaWill Fleury
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Fleury53%
Ricardo Arona 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Fleury a 53% favorite over Ricardo Arona in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ricardo Arona's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1697), separated by just 0 points.
Ricardo Arona finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Will Fleury 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.